The latest ban issued by the UK and the US specifically targets Russia's non-ferrous metal exports, with the intention of completely weakening Russia's trade exports.

In this situation, Russia can only turn its attention back to China. From a different perspective, the intervention of the UK and the US may bring new export profit opportunities to China.

Recently, the UK and the US announced their joint action to impose sanctions on copper, aluminum, and nickel originating from Russia. In addition, the new measures also require major global metal exchanges and derivatives trading of these three metals not to use aluminum, copper, and nickel originating from Russia after April 13th.

At the same time, the United States also announced that it will ban direct imports of these three metals from Russia to limit Russia's export capacity.

This is not the first time that the UK and the US have imposed sanctions on Russian metals. Last year, the UK issued a similar ban. However, Western countries also have reservations that palladium, titanium and other metals required for Western technological development are not included in the scope of sanctions.

Due to the joint operation between the UK and the US, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have been subject to the strictest restrictions.

This is also the main goal of both the UK and the US, which is to deprive Russian metal products of the opportunity to enter the two major global commodity exchanges, thereby cutting off the funding chain of the Russian military industrial consortium.

Under the influence of repeated sanctions imposed by western countries, Russia has gradually reduced its metal exports to the United States and EU countries and turned to Asian countries, such as China, Türkiye and India.

In 2023, Russia's total exports of copper, aluminum, and nickel to the UK and the US accounted for only 0.5% of its total metal exports, and it has almost ceased exporting.

The latest ban issued by the UK and the US indicates that they have taken extreme measures against Russia.

Therefore, it can be said that this sanction is not surprising, and the Russian side has already prepared psychologically for it.

Due to almost zero exports to the UK and the US, the impact of this sanctions on Russia is not significant. However, for other countries, this may not be the case.

Russia plays an important role in the global non-ferrous metal supply system and is an important producer of non-ferrous metals. In 2023, Russia's copper production exceeded 1 million tons, aluminum production approached 4 million tons, and refined nickel production approached 200000 tons, accounting for more than one-fifth of the global refined nickel production.

According to analysis, Russia is one of the main producers of aluminum, copper, nickel, and other metals. The new sanctions imposed by the UK and the US on Russia may lead to a global shortage of these non-ferrous metals, which in turn may lead to price increases.

However, the views of Western countries are different. Their officials and experts predict that Russia's aluminum, copper, and nickel will be traded at low prices, just like oil did before.

However, on April 15th, non-ferrous metal futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a significant increase, with aluminum prices rising by 9.4%, reaching a historic high, while nickel prices also rose by 8.8%. Experts also point out that end consumers in the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom may see the prices of these metals rise by 1.5 to 2 times, which also suggests that the lives of ordinary people will be affected.

As of the end of March 2024, Russia's London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum inventory accounted for 91%, copper inventory accounted for 62%, and nickel inventory accounted for 36%.

The relevant departments are concerned that this restriction may lead to the dumping of Russian raw materials into LME, so the person in charge has issued a warning stating that there is great uncertainty in this sanction, but the UK and the US insist on taking action. Russian Ambassador to the United States Antonov condemned this measure as baseless and politicized.

Russia, which has been sanctioned, will accelerate its adjustment of market supply direction. Some analysts believe that this sanction is unlikely to contain Russia, as non British and American individuals and entities will continue to purchase Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel. Russia will continue to increase its supply to Asia while reducing its exports to EU countries.

In the so-called Asian context, it mainly refers to China. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's imports of aluminum, copper and nickel from Russia increased significantly.

Taking aluminum as an example, China imported nearly 500000 tons of Russian aluminum in 2022, an increase of nearly 60% compared to 2021. By the first three quarters of 2023, China's import volume had exceeded 800000 tons, which can be said to be a significant increase. The import situation of nickel from China to Russia is similar.

After the sharp rise in gold prices, non-ferrous metals are also about to enter a new wave of "explosive period". Experts point out that the surge in commodity futures prices driven by gold is mainly due to measures taken by the United States to alleviate its massive debt crisis.

The United States has adopted a series of strategies. First, it spread expectations about the U.S. debt crisis, waited for the Middle East crisis to slow down, and now it has imposed sanctions on Russia. It is expected that this is only part of it, and more "tricks" will be introduced in the future.

However, the sanctions imposed by the UK and the US may also bring new export profit opportunities to China. With the implementation of sanctions, the Shanghai Futures Exchange will become the only exchange in the world that can trade three metals from Russia, including aluminum, copper, and nickel. This also means that China will become the only country capable of trading Russian metals, potentially gaining "pricing power" over these metals.

Undoubtedly, Russia China cooperation has enormous benefits for the development of our country. Firstly, China's demand for metals such as aluminum, copper, and nickel from Russia continues to increase.

At present, China lacks pricing power in these metal fields and can only passively accept international pricing, which leads to a lack of bargaining power in bulk commodity trade.

However, as the largest importer of Russian metals and also the largest importer of metals such as aluminum, copper, and nickel in Europe, China will help enhance its bargaining position in commodity trade.

Russia holds a significant position in the global strategic non-ferrous metal market, while China's strong economic growth and continuous increase in demand for aluminum products are expected to further expand the prospects of cooperation between China and Russia in this field.